As campaigning closes tonight, Dr Oh Ei Sun says five constituencies could offer clues about the BN–PN pact, PH’s support and MCA’s ability to narrow DAP’s margins.
By TENGKU NOOR SHAMSIAH TENGKU ABDULLAH
MELAKA, Nov 13 – The clearest test of Barisan Nasional’s pact with Perikatan Nasional may come in Paya Rumput, where PAS is contesting a seat UMNO won in 2021. As Melaka’s campaign draws to a close tonight, political analyst Dr Oh Ei Sun says the result will help show whether an agreement struck by party leaders can carry over to the ballot box.
Campaigning ends at 11.59pm after 14 days, with polling on Saturday, Nov 14. A total of 79 candidates are contesting 28 state assembly seats, with 15 needed for a majority. The Election Commission says 687,697 voters are registered. In 2021, BN won 21 seats, Pakatan Harapan five and PN two. This time, BN is contesting 23 seats under its arrangement with PN, which is contesting five, while PH is fielding 24 candidates.
Barisan Nasional and Pakatan Harapan campaign flags line a roadside in Melaka ahead of tomorrow’s state election.
Five seats to watch
Oh told TNS News he would watch Paya Rumput and Sungai Udang for signs of whether UMNO and PAS supporters will back each other’s candidates. In Paya Rumput, that means whether UMNO voters will support a PAS candidate. In Sungai Udang, BN is fielding Rais Yasin, who previously held Paya Rumput.
In Bukit Katil, the question is whether incumbent Adly Zahari’s personal appeal and record of constituency service can help PH retain Malay support in a four-cornered contest. In Bandar Hilir and Kota Laksamana, Oh said the size of DAP’s majorities would be worth watching. A significant narrowing in either seat would be politically meaningful for MCA even if DAP retained both.
“Local personalities, constituency service, development issues and voter turnout could prove decisive,” Oh said.
Could Najib and Loke move votes?
The closing days of the campaign were marked by the High Court decision allowing former prime minister Najib Razak to serve the remainder of his SRC International sentence under house arrest and DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke’s subsequent resignation as transport minister.
Oh said the house arrest could bring some disillusioned UMNO supporters back to the polls, given Najib’s continuing appeal among sections of the party’s traditional base. It could also alienate voters who place greater weight on institutional accountability and equal treatment before the law.
Oh expects any effect to show up mainly in turnout and sentiment among Malay voters.
“In closely contested constituencies, however, even a relatively small movement in turnout could prove consequential,” he said.
Loke’s decision could strengthen his credibility among DAP supporters who expect him to act on the party’s stated position, Oh said. He expects the resignation on its own to have little effect on PH’s overall prospects in Melaka. Its significance, he said, will depend on whether voters see it as a stand on principle or a sign of strain in PH’s partnership with BN in Putrajaya.
The stakes after the count
BN chairman Ahmad Zahid Hamidi has said he is prepared to invite PN assemblymen into the state administration if BN succeeds in forming the government. Oh considers such an arrangement plausible, pointing to Negeri Sembilan, where BN and PN formed a state government after the August election.
“The bigger question is whether state-level cooperation in both Negeri Sembilan and potentially Melaka could become a stepping stone towards a broader BN-PN political realignment before the next general election,” Oh said.
A similar outcome in Melaka could put pressure on UMNO leaders who have to weigh grassroots sentiment against their responsibilities in the federal unity government, he said.
The first clues will come from places such as Paya Rumput and Sungai Udang, where the results will give BN and PN an early indication of how well their pact worked on the ground.
- TNS NEWS
*Related coverage*
[Melaka Election Enters Final 48 Hours Before Saturday Polls](https://tnsnews.com.my/melaka-election-final-48-hours/)