One of the region’s foremost voices on US-China relations and Southeast Asian geopolitics says the region faces a twin vulnerability energy import dependence and trade route disruption while dismissing ASEAN as an organisation incapable of delivering meaningful unity in a fractured world.
BY TENGKU NOOR SHAMSIAH TENGKU ABDULLAH
KUALA LUMPUR, April 10 – As the guns of Operation Epic Fury continue to reshape the Middle East, the reverberations are being felt thousands of kilometres away in Southeast Asia in fuel prices, supply chains, and the quiet anxiety of governments that depend on trade and imported energy to keep their economies afloat. For Dr Oh Ei Sun, one of the region’s foremost voices on US-China relations and Southeast Asian geopolitics, the region faces what he bluntly calls a “double whammy” and its main multilateral organisation is not equipped to help.
In an exclusive interview with TNS NEWS, Dr Oh Principal Adviser at Pacific Research Center Malaysia and Senior Fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs assessed the geopolitical environment confronting Southeast Asia with characteristic candour. He warned of structural economic vulnerabilities, dismissed calls for ASEAN unity as unrealistic, and urged Malaysia and Indonesia to step up individually as credible peace brokers rather than hiding behind collective regional statements.
A Double Whammy: Energy And Trade
Dr Oh identified two structural reasons why the Middle East conflict is particularly acute for Southeast Asia and why the region cannot afford to treat it as a distant crisis.
“Most Southeast Asian countries depend a lot on energy imports, even though some of them are also energy exporters, such as Malaysia and so on. But still, the fact remains, they depend a lot on energy imports. And therefore, when you have a war in the Middle East, it affects the prices of energy and therefore that affects the livelihoods of a lot of people,” he said.
For Malaysia specifically, he noted that the government’s fuel subsidy regime only partially insulates the public. “In Malaysia’s case, even though the government is subsidising to a certain extent the petrol and so on, well, it adds to the government’s burden. That’s why you see they are asking all the civil servants to work from home and so on.”
The second vulnerability is trade. “The major economies in Southeast Asia depend a lot
on trade. They are very trade-oriented countries, economies. And therefore, the war in the Middle East disrupts all these trade routes and logistics and so on,” he explained.
“So it becomes a double whammy. You depend on energy imports and the energy prices are going up accordingly. And then you also depend on trade, foreign trade, and your trade routes are being disrupted.” He pointed to the Philippines as a stark illustration of how acute the situation has become: “There are huge ramifications, with the Philippines essentially saying we are out of energy.”
Malaysia And Indonesia Should Step Up – Not ASEAN
On whether Malaysia and ASEAN have meaningful diplomatic space to contribute to peace efforts, Dr Oh drew a sharp distinction between individual country diplomacy and collective ASEAN action firmly backing the former while dismissing the latter.
“It’s fine to call for diplomacy and de-escalation and so on. I think if you want to be more effective, you need to play a more proactive role such as just like some of the countries hosting, well, albeit clandestine, peace talks between Iran and the United States, for example. You need to do something like that. You need to have the credibility to provide a good office for shall we say real diplomacy to be carried out. Namely, the warring parties will choose you or your site or your venue to host their peace talks,” he said.
“I think in this part of the world, maybe Malaysia or Indonesia could possibly play that role.”
On ASEAN as an institution, he was unsparing. “ASEAN as an organisation, as a regional organisation I don’t think it is effective at all.”
The Strait Of Malacca: A Lesson From Hormuz
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz through which approximately 20 per cent of the world’s oil is exported has thrown the strategic importance of maritime chokepoints into sharp relief. Dr Oh drew a direct lesson for the Strait of Malacca’s littoral states: Malaysia, Indonesia, and Singapore.
“The Strait of Hormuz is of course now the most critical bottleneck for both energy transport and for trade in general. So that should teach us a lesson. The literal states of the Strait of Malacca namely Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore we should work harder to ensure smooth transit through the Malacca Strait. It is smooth now, but you need to make sure it is. You should treat each other nicely as good neighbours and so on, and make sure it maintains a good passage,” he said.
“I think that’s a main lesson.”
Energy Self-Sufficiency And Intra-ASEAN Trade: The Way Forward
Looking at how the current crisis could accelerate structural shifts, Dr Oh argued that geopolitical pressure should drive the region toward greater self-reliance both in energy and in trade.
“The current challenges would perhaps propel us to be more self-reliant on our energy needs. For example, we produce oil and gas as well. So how can we prioritise our own consumption and depend less on oil imports?” he said.
On trade, he set out a concrete and achievable benchmark. “How should we as ASEAN countries increase our trade among ourselves? Right now, trade within ASEAN is only one quarter of ASEAN’s trade with countries outside of ASEAN. So at least we can raise it to half — namely trade within ASEAN being half of trade with countries outside of ASEAN. I think that’s a goal that we should aim for.”
ASEAN Unity: ‘A Moot Question From The Very Beginning’
With Malaysia holding the ASEAN chairmanship in 2025, the question of regional solidarity carries particular weight. But Dr Oh offered a sobering assessment of what unity can and cannot mean in the ASEAN context.
“Whether ASEAN unity is important or not it’s actually a moot question because ASEAN countries go their own ways, both geopolitically as well as in terms of the economy. I mean, it is already good that when they compete with each other economically, they compete in a very civilised manner. I think that’s already very good.”
He was equally direct about the structural reasons ASEAN cannot replicate European-style integration. “It is a very tall order to ask for some sort of ASEAN unity it is simply not attainable. Because to attain such ASEAN unity, you need to have a very strong ASEAN secretariat. You need to have something akin to Brussels, the EU headquarters. And no ASEAN country would tolerate such a strong, centralised ASEAN headquarters.”
“ASEAN consensus works on well, consensus. It essentially gives veto power to each ASEAN country, and therefore it is very difficult to achieve unity. So it’s a moot question from the very beginning.”
Stability Through Self-Reliance, Not Ideology
Asked what will ultimately determine whether ASEAN and Malaysia in particular can remain stable and strategically relevant in an increasingly fragmented world, Dr Oh offered a grounded, pragmatic answer that cut through the rhetoric of regional solidarity.
“The most important thing is to make sure you are self-sufficient or resilient socio-economically. You must be able to feed your population, make sure that their energy needs are met, that their livelihoods are secure. On that basis, then you can talk about some sort of pan-regional cooperation for example, increased trade volumes within ASEAN and so on, but not much beyond that.”
He closed with a warning that carries both historical and contemporary resonance. “You have to be careful not to embroil ourselves in those kinds of ideological confrontations,
like what they like to do in the Middle East. Luckily, we don’t have that in this part of the world.”
He noted, with characteristic precision, that even the recent Thailand-Cambodia border skirmish barely registered on the scale of what the Middle East routinely endures. “Well, okay, fine you may say Thailand and Cambodia recently had this border war. But it was very short-lived.” – TNS NEWS
Dr Oh Ei Sun is Principal Adviser at the Pacific Research Center of Malaysia and a Senior Fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs. He has previously served as a senior research fellow and lecturer at universities in Malaysia, China, Australia and the United States.
EDITOR’S NOTE: This interview was conducted prior to the temporary ceasefire announced in the Iran-US conflict. Dr Oh Ei Sun’s analysis reflects the geopolitical situation at the time of the interview.