TUESDAY, MARCH 10, 2026 • DAY 11 OF OPERATION EPIC FURY
EDITOR’S SUMMARY
Day 11 opens as the most kinetic yet. Iran has a new Supreme Leader — Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, hard-line son of the man killed on Day 1 — and has fired its first missiles under his command. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has declared today will be the most intense day of strikes since the war began. Oil briefly crossed US$120 a barrel before falling back toward US$90 on Trump hints of a quick end. Iran has told the US the war will end on Tehran’s terms, not Washington’s. The EU’s council president has declared Russia the sole winner of the conflict so far. There is no ceasefire in sight.
CONFLICT SCORECARD — AS OF 10 MARCH 2026
| 1,255+ Killed in Iran Iranian authorities, Day 11 | 5,000+ US Targets Struck Trump press conf., Day 10 | 7 US Troops Killed Pentagon — Sgt. Pennington, 7th | ~$100 Brent Crude Volatile; peaked ~$120, Day 10 |
⚔ Military & Strikes
1. Hegseth: ‘Today Will Be Our Most Intense Day of Strikes Inside Iran’
US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth opened Tuesday with an unambiguous escalation warning, telling a Pentagon news conference that Day 11 would surpass all previous days in strike intensity. He said American will in this war is endless, declared Iran is badly losing and stands alone, and noted Iran had fired its lowest number of missiles in the past 24 hours — attributing this to the degradation of its launch capacity. Hegseth declined to comment on whether Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s newly named Supreme Leader, had been wounded in the current conflict, and warned the new leader to heed Trump’s demand that Iran publicly renounce nuclear weapons. Iran’s IRGC immediately rejected US claims that its missile programme had been destroyed, asserting it was deploying projectiles in greater numbers than before.
◆ Source: Al Jazeera, NBC News, Pentagon press conference — 10 March 2026
2. Iran Strikes Haifa Fuel Tanks; Launches Missiles Under New Supreme Leader
In its first military action under Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s military said its drones targeted fuel storage tanks in the Israeli city of Haifa, according to Tasnim news agency. Iranian state broadcaster IRIB published a photograph of a missile bearing the slogan ‘At Your Service, Sayyid Mojtaba’ — a deliberate signal that the new leadership has consolidated command of the armed forces. The Israeli army confirmed it had identified the launch of fresh missiles from Iran toward Israeli territory. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tuesday that Iran would continue fighting for as long as necessary, directly contradicting Trump’s insistence that the conflict would end soon.
◆ Source: Al Jazeera, NBC News, IRIB, Tasnim news agency — 10 March 2026
3. Residential Building in Eastern Tehran Struck — 40 Killed; Arak Hit
Overnight strikes on a residential building in eastern Tehran killed at least 40 people, according to Iranian authorities. Iran says the war has now killed more than 1,255 people and injured approximately 10,000, with the Iranian Red Crescent reporting roughly 10,000 civilian structures damaged nationwide, including homes, schools, and nearly three dozen health facilities. Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf pledged a harsh response to attacks on civilian residential areas. Separately, five people were killed and several injured in a US-Israeli airstrike that hit a residential building in the city of Arak, in western Iran, according to the ISNA news agency.
◆ Source: Al Jazeera, NPR, ISNA, Iranian Red Crescent — 10 March 2026
4. Gulf States Under Fire — Bahrain Civilian Killed; Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia All Report Intercepts
A broad simultaneous salvo continued striking Gulf states into Tuesday. In Bahrain, a 29-year-old woman was killed and eight people injured when a residential building in the capital Manama was hit, the country’s Ministry of Interior confirmed — the most serious civilian casualty in Bahrain since the war began. Kuwait intercepted six drones. UAE air defence systems engaged multiple incoming missiles and drones from Iran, destroying 8 of 9 ballistic missiles, with one falling into the sea. Saudi Arabia’s Defence Ministry confirmed the interception of a drone east of Al-Kharj governorate. The US State Department ordered non-emergency Embassy staff and family members to depart Saudi Arabia, citing ongoing safety risks. Americans in Beirut were simultaneously advised to leave or shelter in place.
✎ EDITOR’S NOTE: Bapco Energies force majeure was declared Monday 9 March (Day 10), not Tuesday. It is referenced in Item 11 below with correct timing.
◆ Source: Al Jazeera, CBC, Gulf News, Bahrain Ministry of Interior — 10 March 2026
5. NATO Shoots Down Second Iranian Ballistic Missile Over Turkey — Debris Near Gaziantep
Turkey’s Defence Ministry confirmed that NATO air defence systems neutralised a second Iranian ballistic missile that entered Turkish airspace since the war began, with debris falling near a housing development in the city of Gaziantep, close to the Syrian border. No casualties were reported. Turkey, which hosts one of NATO’s largest air wings at Incirlik Air Base, has sought to maintain neutrality while separately deploying six F-16 fighter aircraft and additional air defence systems to Northern Cyprus. The US State Department ordered the departure of non-emergency personnel from southeastern Turkey. NATO spokesperson Allison Hart reiterated that the alliance stands ready to defend all member states against any threat.
◆ Source: NPR, Al Jazeera, Turkey Ministry of National Defence — 10 March 2026
🏛 Political & Diplomatic
6. Mojtaba Khamenei Confirmed as Iran’s Third Supreme Leader — Hundreds of Thousands Rally in Tehran
Iran’s Assembly of Experts formally confirmed Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, as the Islamic Republic’s third Supreme Leader on 9 March — only the second transfer of supreme leadership in the history of the Islamic Republic. The Assembly called on the Iranian public, political figures, and senior clergy to pledge allegiance to the newly appointed leader. Hundreds of thousands took to central Tehran in a state-organised show of loyalty, carrying his image and chanting slogans. Mojtaba Khamenei has close ties to the IRGC and is considered even less open to compromise than his late father. His wife, Zahra Haddad Adel, was killed in the same strike that killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on 28 February. Iranian state TV referred to him as ‘janbaz’ — meaning wounded by the enemy — though a state TV analyst later clarified this referred to wounds sustained during the 1980s Iran-Iraq war, not the current conflict.
✎ EDITOR’S NOTE: v1 stated he ‘may have been injured in the war.’ Corrected: Iranian state TV’s use of ‘janbaz’ refers to his Iran-Iraq war injury, not injuries from the current conflict. This was clarified by a state TV analyst shortly after the initial reference. His current health status is unconfirmed.
◆ Source: NPR, Al Jazeera, AP — 9-10 March 2026
7. Trump: ‘Not Happy’ With New Leader; Says US Wants Role in Choosing Iran’s Government
Trump told reporters he was disappointed by Iran’s selection of Mojtaba Khamenei, calling it a choice likely to lead to more of the same problem for the country. He declined to say whether the new leader had a target on his back calling such a comment inappropriate but told reporters his administration wants to be involved in Iran’s leadership. He said: ‘We want to be involved. We don’t want another president that maybe wouldn’t be willing to do what I’m willing to do.’ In a phone call with CBS News, Trump said ‘the war is very complete.’ At a later press conference he said the US was achieving major strides toward completing its military objective. But at a separate event with Republican lawmakers in Miami he struck a harder tone, saying the US had not yet won enough and was seeking ultimate victory.
◆ Source: CBS News, NPR, NBC News — 9-10 March 2026
8. Iran’s IRGC: ‘Iran Will Determine When the War Ends’
In a direct rebuttal to Trump’s talk of imminent conclusion, IRGC spokesperson Ali Mohammed Naini told Iranian state media that Iran, not the United States, would have the final say on when the conflict ends. In a separate PBS NewsHour interview, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said he did not believe negotiating with the United States would be on the table again, citing a bitter experience of indirect nuclear talks that collapsed once the fighting began. In an exclusive CNN interview, Kamal Kharazi, foreign policy adviser to the supreme leader’s office, ruled out diplomacy for now and said Iran was prepared for a long war, willing to continue striking Arab Gulf countries. He indicated the war would end only through economic pain. Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson separately accused the US of intending to partition the country and take its oil.
◆ Source: NPR, PBS NewsHour, CNN, Al Jazeera — 10 March 2026
9. China, Russia, France Contact Iran on Ceasefire; EU Says Russia Is the Sole Winner
Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed that China, Russia, and France had all separately contacted Tehran regarding a ceasefire, according to Iranian state TV. However, no framework has been proposed or accepted. EU Council President Antonio Costa delivered one of the sharpest analytical verdicts of the war so far, telling EU ambassadors in Brussels that Russia was the sole winner to date. Costa identified three simultaneous Russian gains: surging energy revenues as oil prices climb, Western military resources diverted away from Ukraine, and reduced international attention on the Ukrainian front as the Middle East crisis dominates. Trump and Putin held a separate phone call on Monday, discussing the Iran war and prospects for peace in Ukraine.
◆ Source: Al Jazeera, NBC News, EU Council — 10 March 2026
📈 Energy, Markets & Global Impact
10. Oil Hits Nearly US$120 Before Falling Back — Markets Seesawing on Trump War-End Signals
Global oil prices surged to nearly US$120 per barrel Monday – the highest since 2022 — before retreating toward the US$90 range after Trump suggested the war could end soon. By Tuesday morning, Brent was trading near US$100 as the market attempted to price the gap between Trump’s contradictory signals. US crude has risen more than 60 percent over the past month. Japan’s Nikkei fell more than 5 percent Monday as oil prices surged. The average US pump price has jumped approximately 50 cents per gallon in a week, from just under US$2.98 to US$3.45, according to AAA, with analysts warning it could hit a US$4 national average. Trump posted on Truth Social that there was not an oil shortage, and called the price spike a very small price to pay for world safety.
◆ Source: AP, Al Jazeera, NBC News, NPR, AAA — 9-10 March 2026
11. Bapco Force Majeure (Day 10); Iran Threatens to Block Oil Until Strikes Stop
Bahrain’s state oil company Bapco Energies declared force majeure on its group operations on Monday 9 March — Day 10 of the conflict — allowing it to suspend contractual supply obligations following an Iranian drone attack on its Maameer facility. Fires were recorded; no casualties were reported at the time. On Tuesday, NBC News reported that Tehran was signalling it would maintain restrictions on Hormuz-area shipping until US-Israeli strikes on Iran ceased. The headline-level threat is a full blockade of oil flows through the strait. Saudi Arabia’s Shaybah oilfield was targeted by a drone that its air defences destroyed. Abu Dhabi National Oil Company’s Ruwais refinery was shut after a drone strike sparked a fire inside the complex. Kuwait has been cutting oil production after running out of onshore storage capacity.
✎ EDITOR’S NOTE: v1 described the Bapco force majeure as occurring on Day 11 (Tuesday). Corrected: Bapco declared force majeure on Monday 9 March (Day 10), confirmed by Gulf News and Al Jazeera. The reference has been moved to its accurate date.
◆ Source: Al Jazeera, Gulf News, NBC News, CBC, Bapco Energies statement — 9-10 March 2026
12. Australia Sends Missiles to UAE; Grants Asylum to Iranian Women Footballers
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced Tuesday that Australia would deploy a military surveillance aircraft to the Middle East and supply missiles to the UAE — while ruling out the deployment of ground troops. The announcement makes Australia the most geographically distant Western nation to contribute directly to Gulf defence infrastructure since the war began. Trump praised Albanese, saying he had done a very good job. Separately, Australia granted humanitarian visas to five members of Iran’s women’s soccer team, who had been competing in the Women’s Asian Cup on the Gold Coast and sought protection after refusing to sing Iran’s national anthem before their first match against South Korea. Supporters outside the team’s hotel blocked the team bus, fearing the players would be forced to return to Iran.
◆ Source: Al Jazeera, CBC, CNN, Australian PM’s office — 10 March 2026
🔎 Intelligence & Analysis
13. US Intercepts Encrypted Signals — Possible Activation of Iranian Sleeper Cells
ABC News reported that US intelligence intercepted encrypted communications shortly after Khamenei’s death on 28 February that may serve as an operational trigger for covert assets outside Iran. The intercept was encoded and appeared destined for clandestine recipients possessing the encryption key — the type of message intended to impart instructions to sleeper assets without using the internet or cellular networks. The alert stated there was no operational threat tied to a specific location. Trump told reporters Monday his administration was very much on top of tracking whether Iran had activated sleeper cells inside the United States. Norwegian police continued investigating the 8 March explosion near the US Embassy in Oslo as a possible deliberate attack linked to the current security situation.
◆ Source: ABC News, NBC News, Reuters — 9-10 March 2026
14. Minab School Strike: Senate Democrats Condemn Attack; Trump Blames Iran Despite New Evidence
Six senior US Senate Democrats issued a joint statement on 9 March describing themselves as horrified by
the Minab school strike of 28 February, which killed between 165 and 180 people at Shajareh Tayyebeh girls’ elementary school — most of them schoolgirls aged seven to twelve. The senators said independent analysis credibly suggested the strike may have been conducted by US forces. New video released by Iranian state media appearing to show a US cruise missile striking the adjacent military compound was geographically verified by open-source investigation group Bellingcat. Commercial satellite imagery reviewed by NPR showed the strike hit more sites than initially reported. Despite this, Trump on Day 11 again suggested Iran was responsible — a claim that CBC described as contradicting the unearthed footage.
◆ Source: NPR, NBC News, CBC, Bellingcat — 9-10 March 2026
TNS NEWS EDITORIAL WRAP DAY 11 — TUESDAY, 10 MARCH 2026
THE STORY OF THE DAY
The defining story of Day 11 is not the oil price spike, dramatic as it was. It is the emergence of a war within the war — a battle over who controls the narrative of how this conflict ends. Trump says it will be over soon. Iran’s IRGC says Iran will determine when it ends. Both cannot be correct. What we are witnessing is each side attempting to manage the domestic and international perception of the war’s trajectory before the other side can impose its version of events. Trump is managing gas prices and Republican opinion at home; Iran’s new Supreme Leader is managing a domestic audience that needs to believe the regime is not defeated. The gap between these two competing narratives is not narrowing. It is widening — and in that gap, more people die.
WHAT MOJTABA KHAMENEI’S ELEVATION MEANS
The selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as Supreme Leader carries a message that Iran’s establishment intended for the world to read: this is not a regime preparing to surrender. His ties to the IRGC are deeper than his father’s in the final years. He is 56 — a generational shift that implies a multi-decade tenure if the regime survives. His confirmation, via Kamal Kharazi, that Iran is prepared for a long war delivered within hours of his appointment signals that Tehran has concluded its survival strategy is attrition, not negotiation. The regime’s first public image of him was on the nose of a projectile. That is not a government signalling willingness to deal. For Malaysia and regional observers: the scenario markets were half-pricing — that regime change would produce a tractable successor — has now been definitively closed.
THE EU PRESIDENT’S VERDICT — AND WHY MALAYSIA SHOULD LISTEN
EU Council President Antonio Costa’s assessment — that Russia is the sole winner of this war so far — deserves more attention in this part of the world than it has received. Costa identified three Russian gains simultaneously: energy revenues rising as prices surge, military capacity redirected away from Ukraine, and Western diplomatic bandwidth consumed by the Middle East. This is precisely the analysis that shapes how long this war will last. If Russia is profiting from the conflict’s continuation, Moscow has every incentive to sustain it through intelligence support to Iran, energy market positioning, and the simple strategic arithmetic of keeping US attention divided. Malaysia, as a nation with significant trade interests in multiple directions, should read this correctly: the war may by design be longer than any single party claims.
TOMORROW’S WATCH LIST — WEDNESDAY, 11 MARCH 2026
▸ Hegseth’s ‘most intense day’ — what was actually hit?: Were new target categories struck — ports, power grids, civilian infrastructure? Casualty reports will clarify.
▸ Mojtaba Khamenei’s first public address: His appearance will be read globally as a signal of regime stability. Continued silence raises its own questions.
▸ Oil price settlement: Does Brent hold above US$100 or does the Trump-induced retreat extend? The US$90-120 band is the new battleground for global economic planning.
▸ Ceasefire diplomacy: China, Russia, and France have all contacted Tehran. Does a concrete framework emerge, or do these remain symbolic gestures ahead of a Chinese diplomatic push?
▸ Lebanon direct talks: Lebanese President Aoun has signalled readiness for direct talks with Israel. Israel has acknowledged positive signs. A Lebanon-specific ceasefire could complicate or accelerate the wider dynamic. – TNS NEWS
Compiled and written by TNS News Team | Sources verified against named publications | © TNS News 2026. All rights reserve