By Tengku Noor Shamsiah Tengku Abdullah
SINGAPORE, OCT 4 – Despite a backdrop of rising global risks, the ASEAN+3 region is expected to maintain solid economic growth in the coming years, according to the latest quarterly update from the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO).
In the October 2024 update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO), AMRO forecasts the ASEAN+3 region to grow at 4.2 percent in 2024 and improve to 4.4 percent in 2025.
Continued recovery in external trade and tourism, alongside resilient domestic demand, will remain the key drivers of growth.
The 2024 growth projection marks a slight revision from the previous estimate of 4.4% released in July, largely due to adjustments in China and Vietnam’s outlooks.
However, ASEAN countries remain poised for expansion, with growth anticipated at 4.7%, while the Plus-3 economies—China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Korea—are expected to grow at 4.1% next year.
AMRO’s Chief Economist, Dr. Hoe Ee Khor, cautioned that recent developments in global markets have heightened risks for the region.
“The sharp but short-lived market adjustments in early August serve as a reminder of the potential for financial volatility.
Moreover, the outcome of the upcoming US presidential election could pose a significant risk, particularly if it intensifies protectionist policies or escalates trade tensions.”
Inflation in the region, excluding Lao PDR and Myanmar, is projected to moderate to 1.9% in 2024, down slightly from the July forecast of 2.1%. This decline reflects easing global inflationary pressures, which remain well-contained in the ASEAN+3 region, ” he said during AMRO’s latest quarterly update on AREO held virtually here Thursday.
However, the economic outlook isn’t without challenges. Weakness in the US labour market and key economic indicators, such as the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), have raised concerns about a sharper slowdown in the global economy.
Regional exports could face headwinds if these trends persist, while geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and China, could further complicate trade dynamics.
In response, central banks across the globe have begun easing monetary policy, with China implementing new stimulus measures to support its economy.
According to Dr. Khor, these actions are expected to generate positive spillover effects across the ASEAN+3 region, but external uncertainties underscore the need for continued resilience-building and stronger regional cooperation.
AMRO’s next quarterly update will be released in January 2025, providing further insight into the evolving economic landscape of the ASEAN+3 region.
AMRO is dedicated to promoting macroeconomic and financial stability in the ASEAN+3 region. It conducts economic surveillance, supports financial arrangements, and provides technical assistance to its member countries, which include the 10 ASEAN nations, China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Korea.
- TNS News