Shan Saeed
By TENGKU NOOR SHAMSIAH TENGKU ABDULLAH
KUALA LUMPUR, April 24 – Malaysia’s economic trajectory remains resilient despite fresh warnings of global headwinds from major financial institutions.
As the world navigates a slowdown in China and potential recession in the United States, ASEAN’s strategic importance is growing—and Malaysia is emerging as a pivotal player in keeping the region on track.
According to Shan Saeed, Global Chief Economist at Juwai IQI, Malaysia’s long-term fundamentals remain intact and are even strengthening within a shifting global economic landscape.
“Malaysia can remain on the growth path. Nothing to worry,” Saeed told DagangNews.
“We at IQI Global have not lowered our forecast for the Malaysian economic outlook for 2025.”
Growth to Moderate, But Long-Term Picture Holds
In its latest forecast, OCBC Bank projected that Malaysia’s GDP could slow to 4.3% this year, down from 5.1% in 2024, citing external risks from a potential U.S. recession and a prolonged slowdown in China.
“There will be some slowdown in the second half of this year,” noted OCBC chief economist Selena Ling.
“I think that’s quite inevitable.”
The bank also warned that growth could fall as low as 3.5% if new U.S. tariffs target semiconductor exports, a key driver of Malaysian trade.
But Saeed was quick to push back.
“OCBC has been overreacting about many issues in the past. Their analysis is quite banal,” he said.
“We expect GDP to meander between 5 and 6%. Malaysia’s economic resilience is underpinned by strong demographics and consumption.”
Malaysia as ASEAN’s Economic Nerve Center
Saeed emphasized that Malaysia’s significance goes far beyond domestic figures. With a population of 34 million, a strategic location at the Strait of Malacca, and stable diplomatic ties with both the West and China, Malaysia is central to ASEAN’s broader growth narrative.
“We remain buoyant on Malaysia, as well as Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, and Cambodia,” he said.
“ASEAN can move forward with strong macroeconomic stability. Malaysia is at the core of that momentum.”
Xi Jinping’s Visit Reinforces Strategic Position
The state visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Malaysia from April 15 to 17, 2025 underscored the depth of bilateral ties and Malaysia’s growing role in China’s regional calculus. The visit, which included high-level economic and diplomatic engagements, reinforced Malaysia’s importance within ASEAN and its relevance on the global stage.
“The visit is a testament to Malaysia’s role in global affairs,” said Saeed.
“From trade corridors to digital supply chains, Malaysia is indispensable.”
It also comes at a time when Malaysia, as ASEAN Chair in 2025, is being looked upon to help navigate the bloc through global uncertainty while reinforcing regional integration and non-alignment.
ASEAN Integration: A Strategic Imperative
With major economies leaning toward protectionism, ASEAN’s model of open regionalism is gaining attention from global investors seeking scale, diversification, and policy stability.
“Malaysia’s strength lies in its diplomacy, geography, and economic openness,” said Saeed.
“As ASEAN continues to integrate, Malaysia will be essential in keeping the region investor-friendly and competitive.”
He noted that Juwai IQI remains optimistic not only about Malaysia, but about ASEAN’s prospects more broadly—especially as companies recalibrate global supply chains toward the region.
Conclusion: Resilient, Relevant, and Ready
Malaysia may be facing near-term external pressures, but seasoned observers like Saeed argue that the country’s role in regional and global value chains is only expanding. As ASEAN seeks stability and relevance in a fragmented world, Malaysia’s pragmatic diplomacy and strategic clarity offer a steady hand at the wheel.
“ASEAN has the tools. Malaysia has the credibility. Now is the time to lead.”
- TNS NEWS