BY TENGKU NOOR SHAMSIAH TENGKU ABDULLAH
Kuala Lumpur, April 9 – The Malaysian Ringgit (RM) is poised to maintain structural stability in 2025, with an outlook ranging between 4.10 and 4.30, according to Shan Saeed, Global Chief Economist at Juwai IQI.
This resilience is projected even amidst ongoing global trade tensions and tariff turbulence.
Shan’s analysis is rooted in the expectation that the US dollar is approaching a period of “tail-end risk,” and he anticipates the Federal Reserve will implement two to three rate cuts in 2025.
This macroeconomic backdrop, he believes, will support the Ringgit’s stability.
About Shan Saeed
Shan Saeed is the Global Chief Economist at Juwai IQI, a prominent proptech company with operations and advisory services spanning across key global cities, including Kuala Lumpur.
With over two decades of experience in financial markets, Saeed’s expertise encompasses private banking, risk and compliance management, commodity investments, the global economy, and brand and business strategy.
He is a frequent commentator on financial markets, featured in international media outlets. Shan holds qualifications from prestigious institutions, including the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago.
Ringgit’s Resilience to Tariffs
In discussing the impact of tariffs, Saeed offers a nuanced perspective. He acknowledges short-term pressures but emphasizes the Ringgit’s long-term stability. “Short term—yes. Long term no,” Shan states, regarding the direct impact of tariffs on the Ringgit’s valuation. He elaborates, “The dollar gaining strength in the short run but not in the long run.”
Shan believes that while tariffs may cause short-term fluctuations, their long-term impact on the Ringgit and the Malaysian economy is limited.
He argues that investors maintain a long-term view, focusing on Malaysia’s strong fundamentals.
A Brief Tariff Background
The tariff background involves a complex web of trade actions, primarily initiated by the United States in recent years.
These actions have included tariffs on goods from various countries, most notably China, leading to retaliatory measures and escalating trade tensions.
The initial motive of these tariffs was to protect domestic industries, reduce trade deficits, and address what the U.S. perceived as unfair trade practices.
However, they have created uncertainty in the global market, affecting currency valuations and trade flows.
FDI and Malaysia’s Strengths
Shan also addressed concerns about the influence of tariffs on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows into Malaysia and the implications for the Ringgit. “No impact to FDI,” he asserts.
“Investors think long term. Investors take positions in a country, and they are making investments… They think long term. Malaysia right now has got infrastructure, micro-economic stability, a productive labor force, and, above all, Malaysia has got strategic geography, so when investors come, they think long term. They don’t think tariffs.”
Shan views the current tariff environment as transient. “Tariffs are here, but there will be a U-turn on tariffs… I think tariffs will be over… Overall, it is not making any impact on FDI,” he says.
Global Economic Factors
Shan also considers the broader global economic context, including the influence of the Chinese Yuan.
He suggests that while short-term volatility is possible, the Ringgit’s long-term performance will be anchored by Malaysia’s economic strengths and the expected shift in US monetary policy.
TNS NEWS