BN’s confidence rests on Johor’s strong economic momentum and the popularity of Menteri Besar Onn Hafiz Ghazi, while a convincing victory could strengthen Ahmad Zahid Hamidi’s hand in national seat negotiations ahead of the next general election, says analyst Dr Oh Ei Sun.
By Tengku Noor Shamsiah Tengku Abdullah
KUALA LUMPUR, June 5, 2026 — Barisan Nasional’s (BN) decision to contest all 56 Johor state seats on its own is driven less by tactical calculation than by raw confidence, and the result will be watched closely far beyond the state’s borders, according to political analyst Dr Oh Ei Sun.
With the Johor State Assembly dissolved on June 1 and polls due within 60 days, BN’s choice to go solo rather than field a joint slate with its federal partner Pakatan Harapan (PH) has become the defining question of the election.
Dr Oh, Principal Adviser at the Pacific Research Center of Malaysia and Senior Fellow at the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, argues that the move stems from a belief within Johor BN that the coalition can match or even improve on its 2022 performance, and increasingly sees Pakatan as a partner that limits rather than enhances its electoral prospects.
“Johor BN is confident they could either repeat the 40-seat win or even exceed it,” Dr Oh said, pointing to a state economy buoyed by foreign investment, particularly in data centres, as well as the popularity of Menteri Besar Dato Onn Hafiz Ghazi.
“He proves to be quite a charismatic figure despite his youth. Every other day he would go to the Johor customs area and try to improve the difficulties for people going back and forth between Singapore and Johor.”
Dr Oh believes the confidence underpinning Johor BN’s solo strategy extends beyond the state and carries a clear national message. In his view, the move signals that BN chairman Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi wants to demonstrate the coalition’s electoral strength ahead of broader negotiations over the next general election.
A strong showing would become a bargaining chip in the run-up to the next general election, giving Zahid leverage whether BN ultimately contests independently or remains within the Unity Government framework.
“If BN Johor performs even better than last time, national BN could seriously consider going solo,” he said. “Or even if it is still tying up with PH, he could ask for more seats.”
A commanding result in Johor, in other words, would allow Zahid to point to a proven electoral formula and press for a larger share of seats nationally while reminding coalition partners that BN retains the option of going it alone.
Underlying this strategy is a calculation about the Malay vote that Dr Oh says increasingly works against the coalition arrangement itself. In his assessment, BN sees PH and particularly DAP as a liability among sections of the Malay electorate.
“PH is a liability,” he said. “The Malays don’t like DAP. So if you team up with DAP, you might not get a lot of Malay votes. This is applicable not only to Johor, but nationally.”
With both PKR and DAP facing challenges in sustaining support, BN strategists may believe they have an opportunity not only to defend their own seats but also to win constituencies currently held by Pakatan.
For Perikatan Nasional (PN), however, Dr Oh does not foresee a southern version of the “green wave” that reshaped politics in the northern states.
Instead, he sees the coalition’s best opportunity in Johor’s rural interior, particularly in the northern and eastern parts of the state and around former prime minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin’s political base in Pagoh.
“If PN could make more inroads in the rural parts of Johor, around Muhyiddin’s Pagoh seats, that would be quite a breakthrough for them,” he said. “Because after all, Johor is a BN stronghold.”
In a state long regarded as Umno’s birthplace and traditional fortress, even modest gains by PN would represent a meaningful advance.
The election’s biggest wildcard, however, may be Parti Bersama Malaysia, the newly relaunched political vehicle led by former Economy Minister Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli and former natural resources and environmental sustainability minister Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad.
The party has vowed to contest independently without joining any coalition.
Conventional wisdom suggests that a multiracial reform-oriented party would primarily split PH’s urban and youth support base, indirectly benefiting BN. Dr Oh is not convinced.
“It’s still too early to tell” whether Bersama will gain traction, he said, rejecting the notion that the party would only hurt Pakatan.
“I don’t think Bersama will simply split PH’s votes and hand them to BN, because Bersama will also eat into some of BN’s votes. It will eat both ways.”
Whether Bersama ultimately contests in Johor remains unconfirmed, but if it does, the state election would mark its first electoral test since its relaunch.
The Unity Government leadership has signalled a different approach. Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, who chairs PH, has said he intends to engage Zahid to seek a more coordinated understanding ahead of the polls, reflecting federal concerns about open competition between the coalition’s two largest components.
There is also a note of caution beneath BN’s confidence.
Several of BN’s victories in the 2022 Johor election were secured on minority vote shares, with the combined opposition vote exceeding BN’s tally in constituencies such as Larkin. A more crowded contest involving PH, PN and Bersama could therefore produce more complex outcomes than a straightforward BN surge.
Johor last went to the polls in March 2022, when BN captured 40 of the state’s 56 seats — with Umno winning 33, MCA four and MIC three — on a turnout of about 55 per cent. Pakatan secured 12 seats, PN won three and Muda one.
The early dissolution, more than ten months before the assembly’s term was due to expire in April 2027, now sets the stage for a contest whose significance extends well beyond Johor.
For the Unity Government, for Zahid’s influence within it, and for the strategic calculations surrounding the next general election, Johor’s verdict is likely to be among Malaysia’s most closely watched political outcomes this year.
- TNS NEWS